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ladimir Putin has long played a strategic and calculated game on the global stage. His goal? To restore Russia’s former glory, undermine Western democracies, and expand his sphere of influence. However, with Donald Trump back in power, the geopolitical landscape becomes even more unpredictable. Rather than opposing Putin’s ambitions, Trump’s approach may actually facilitate them, posing a direct threat to Europe, the United States, and global stability.

1. The Strategy of Chaos

Putin does not rely solely on traditional military conquests; his strategy is based on creating instability and division within the Western world. His methods include:

• Political interference – Funding extremist parties, fueling social unrest, and using propaganda to polarize societies.
• Cyber warfare – Hacking elections, spreading misinformation, and manipulating public opinion.
• Energy blackmail – Using Russia’s control over gas and oil supplies as a weapon against Europe.
• Military aggression – The invasion of Ukraine is a clear example, and there is no guarantee that Putin will stop there.

Trump’s foreign policy, marked by isolationism and disdain for traditional alliances, plays directly into Putin’s hands, weakening the democratic front against authoritarianism.

2. Trump and Putin: An Unholy Alliance?

During Trump’s first presidency, his reluctance to criticize Putin raised concerns. His admiration for strongman leaders and his skepticism of NATO suggested a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy. If Trump now actively disengages from European security, Putin gains a significant advantage.

Possible consequences include:

• A weakened NATO, unable to act decisively against Russian aggression.
• A divided European Union, as countries struggle to defend themselves without U.S. support.
• A power shift in global politics, where authoritarian regimes (Russia, China, North Korea) gain influence while democracies decline.

3. The Western Dilemma

How should the West respond to this dangerous situation? So far, reactions have been inconsistent and hesitant. Economic sanctions have hurt Russia, but they have not stopped Putin’s ambitions. Military aid to Ukraine has been significant, yet Putin continues his offensive. If Trump removes U.S. backing from Ukraine or NATO, the situation could worsen dramatically.

For the West to counter this threat, it must:

1. Strengthen European unity – A divided Europe plays into Putin’s hands. A new military alliance, possibly with countries like Canada, Japan, and Australia, could reinforce democratic defense.
2. Increase cybersecurity efforts – Protecting democratic institutions from Russian cyberattacks is critical.
3. Reduce dependence on Russian energy – Developing alternative energy sources will weaken one of Putin’s strongest weapons.
4. Show military strength – Deterrence is essential. The West must make it clear that further Russian aggression will have severe consequences.
5. Fight propaganda – Russia’s disinformation campaigns are powerful. Western nations must actively combat false narratives.

The World at a Crossroads

The combination of Trump’s isolationism and Putin’s expansionism creates a highly volatile situation. If the West does not act decisively, Russia will continue to push boundaries, testing how far it can go before encountering real resistance.

The question is: will the democratic world rise to the challenge, or will it allow authoritarianism to spread unchecked?

History has shown that ignoring aggressors only emboldens them. The time for indecision is over—Europe and its allies must stand firm before it’s too late.

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Francisco Gonçalves

e-mail: francis.goncalves@gmail.com

Crédits for ChatGPT (c) e DeepSeek (c) on text formatting and image generation for the article.