With Draconian Measures, Is Trump Condemning the USA?

With Draconian Measures, Is Trump Condemning the USA?

February 2, 2025

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has expressed his intention to impose import tariffs on the European Union (EU). In December 2024, Trump threatened the EU with new tariffs on imported products from the region if Member States did not increase their purchases of American oil and gas.

Furthermore, Trump stated that the EU is in line for tariff impositions after already announcing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China.

These threats indicate a possible escalation of trade tensions between the US and the EU, which could impact various economic sectors, including the automotive and chemical industries, which rely heavily on exports to the US.

The EU has sought to downplay these threats, but the situation remains volatile. It is crucial to monitor developments to understand the potential implications for international trade and the economies involved.

However, if Trump insists, events he has not even imagined could unfold.

For example, if Canada, the European Union (EU), and the United Kingdom strengthen their trade alliances while seeking fairer trade agreements with China and other emerging economies, the US could face a scenario of isolation, especially if it persists with a unilateral approach of high tariffs and protectionist policies.

Possible Scenarios for the US:

Trade Isolation:

If countries like Canada, the EU, and the UK form closer economic alliances among themselves and with other major trade powers, such as China, the US could be excluded from lucrative trade agreements. This would leave the US negotiating isolated deals, without the power to influence larger blocs of countries.

Loss of Global Influence:

Historically, the US has had significant influence over global trade regulations. However, by adopting a more aggressive and protectionist stance, it could lose this position, while the EU and China could take on greater leadership in global trade, sustainable development, and even technological innovation.

Return to Multilateral Diplomacy:

If the US finds itself marginalized, it may be forced to adopt a more cooperative approach, returning to multilateral diplomacy and international forums to reverse the economic damage caused by its tariffs. This could mean making concessions in various areas, including trade and international security.

Risk of Retaliation and Economic Slowdown:

Imposing high tariffs could lead to a long-term trade war, harming both the US and its trade partners. If the EU, Canada, and China strengthen their economic ties, the US could face an economic slowdown, with increased import costs and an impact on exports.

However, if the US isolates itself economically, the risk is that its economy—more dependent on domestic consumption and trade with specific partners—may struggle to compete with the diversity and trade blocs that could emerge in an increasingly globalized world. The balance of power could shift from a US-dominated system to a more evenly distributed one between powers such as China, the EU, and other emerging economies.

As the Chinese president said, “With these disruptions to current trade agreements, no one will win, and everyone will lose.”

Francisco Gonçalves / ChatGPT

Email: Francis.goncalves@gmail.com